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The purpose of the USFS Pacific Northwest Region Wildfire Risk Assessment (PNRA) is to provide foundational information about wildfire hazard and risk to highly valued resources and assets across the Region. Such information supports regional fuel management planning decisions, as well as revisions to land and resource management plans. A wildfire risk assessment is a quantitative analysis of assets and resources and how they would be potentially impacted by wildfire. The PNRA analysis considers several different components, each resolved spatially across the region, including:
• likelihood of a fire burning, • the intensity of a fire if one should occur,
• the exposure of assets and resources based on their locations, and • the susceptibility of those assets and resources to wildfire FSim – Large-wildfire simulation system
FSim is a comprehensive fire occurrence, growth, behavior, and suppression simulation system that uses locally relevant fuel, weather, topography, and historical fire occurrence information to generate spatially resolved estimates of the contemporary likelihood and intensity of wildfire events (Finney and others 2011). FSim generates stochastic simulation data based on many thousands of iterations, then integrates those iterations into a probabilistic result. An FSim iteration spans one entire year. Due to the highly varied nature of weather and fire occurrence across the Pacific Northwest Region, we divided the landscape into twenty-three Fire Occurrence Areas (FOA). FOA boundaries were generated using elevation-based ecozones, aggregated where appropriate for fire modeling purposes. For consistency with other FSim projects, we numbered these FOAs 401 through 423. Each FOA was simulated independently with a minimum of 10,000 iterations, and then the 23 runs were compiled into a single data product. For each FOA, we parameterized and calibrated FSim based on the location of historical fire ignitions within the FOA, which is consistent with how the historical record is compiled. We... |
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The purpose of the USFS Pacific Northwest Region Wildfire Risk Assessment (PNRA) is to provide foundational information about wildfire hazard and risk to highly valued resources and assets across the Region. Such information supports regional fuel management planning decisions, as well as revisions to land and resource management plans. A wildfire risk assessment is a quantitative analysis of assets and resources and how they would be potentially impacted by wildfire. The PNRA analysis considers several different components, each resolved spatially across the region, including:
• likelihood of a fire burning, • the intensity of a fire if one should occur,
• the exposure of assets and resources based on their locations, and • the susceptibility of those assets and resources to wildfire FSim – Large-wildfire simulation system
FSim is a comprehensive fire occurrence, growth, behavior, and suppression simulation system that uses locally relevant fuel, weather, topography, and historical fire occurrence information to generate spatially resolved estimates of the contemporary likelihood and intensity of wildfire events (Finney and others 2011). FSim generates stochastic simulation data based on many thousands of iterations, then integrates those iterations into a probabilistic result. An FSim iteration spans one entire year. Due to the highly varied nature of weather and fire occurrence across the Pacific Northwest Region, we divided the landscape into twenty-three Fire Occurrence Areas (FOA). FOA boundaries were generated using elevation-based ecozones, aggregated where appropriate for fire modeling purposes. For consistency with other FSim projects, we numbered these FOAs 401 through 423. Each FOA was simulated independently with a minimum of 10,000 iterations, and then the 23 runs were compiled into a single data product. For each FOA, we parameterized and calibrated FSim based on the location of historical fire ignitions within the FOA, which is consistent with how the historical record is compiled. We... |
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This dataset was developed for the USFS Pacific Northwest Region by Pyrologix LLC (www.pyrologix.com). |
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<DIV STYLE="text-align:Left;"><DIV><DIV><P STYLE="margin:0 0 11 0;"><SPAN><SPAN>This dataset represents the conditional probability of exceeding a nominal flame-length value (also known as flame-length exceedance probability, or FLEP). There are five FLEP rasters. FLEP_GT2 is the conditional probability of exceeding a flame length of 2 feet; it is calculated as the sum of iFLP_FIL2 through iFLP_FIL6. FLEP_GT4 is the conditional probability of exceeding a flame length of 4 feet; it is calculated as the sum of iFLP_FIL3 through iFLP_FIL6. FLEP_GT6 is the conditional probability of exceeding a flame length of 6 feet; it is calculated as the sum of iFLP_FIL4 through iFLP_FIL6. FLEP_GT8 is the conditional probability of exceeding a flame length of 8 feet; it is calculated as the sum of iFLP_FIL5 and iFLP_FIL6. There is no raster for FLEP_GT0 because, by definition, for all burnable pixels there is a 100 percent probability that flame length will exceed 0, given that a fire occurs. </SPAN></SPAN></P><P STYLE="margin:0 0 11 0;"><SPAN>The iFLP_FILx rasters are the integrated (project wide) conditional probabilities of observing flame length in each of six classes: iFLP_FIL1 represents flame lengths from 0 - 2 ft, iFLP_FIL2 represents flame lengths from 2 - 4 ft, iFLP_FIL3 represents flame lengths from 4 - 6 ft, iFLP_FIL4 represents flame lengths from 6 - 8 ft, iFLP_FIL5 represents flame lengths from 8 - 12 ft, and iFLP_FIL6 represents flame lengths >12 ft.</SPAN></P></DIV></DIV></DIV> |
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<DIV STYLE="text-align:Left;"><DIV><DIV><P STYLE="margin:0 0 11 0;"><SPAN><SPAN>The user must be aware of data conditions and must ultimately bear responsibility for the appropriate use of the information with respect to possible errors, possible omissions, map scale, data collection methodology, data currency, and other conditions specific to certain data.</SPAN></SPAN></P><P><SPAN /></P></DIV></DIV></DIV> |
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4 ft.Flame-length Exceedance Probability (FLP_GT4) |
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en-US |
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